Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Forecast
Context:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first long-range forecast for 2026, issuing a warning that the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) will be "below normal" for the first time in 11 years.
This raises significant concerns for India's agrarian economy just ahead of the crucial Kharif sowing season
Forecast Details:
Rainfall Deficit:
During the core monsoon months of June to September, India is projected to receive only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of rainfall.
A monsoon is officially categorized as "below normal" when the predicted rainfall for the season falls between 90-95% of the LPA.
The Primary Driver:
The primary reason for this suppressed rainfall is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions—the periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific.
Currently, "weak" La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral, with El Niño expected to take full effect by the second half of the monsoon.
Historically, El Niño has depressed India's monsoon rainfall nine times in its 16 occurrences since 1960.
Counter-Balancing Climate Factors:
Climate scientists note that certain phenomena could partially offset the negative impacts of El Niño:
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):
An oscillation of sea-surface temperatures between the western (near Africa) and eastern (near Indonesia) tropical Indian Ocean, which generally brings more rain to India.
Reduced Snow Cover:
The extent of northern hemisphere snow cover from January to March 2026 was slightly below normal, a condition favorable for the SWM.
Global Warming:
Excess moisture accumulated due to global warming since 2000 has been known to cause localized heavy rainfall, such as recent observations in Rajasthan.
Agricultural Impact:
This forecast presents a "double whammy" for the approximately 60% of Indian farmers who are completely dependent on rainfed agriculture.
They are already reeling from pre-monsoon hailstorms and flooding and must now navigate this rainfall deficit alongside anticipated fertilizer supply disruptions linked to the ongoing West Asia conflict.