India’s Progress on Climate Targets
Context:
India has achieved meaningful progress on specific climate metrics, particularly in reducing emissions intensity and expanding non-fossil fuel capacity.
However, reports indicate a divergence between these headline successes and the actual ecological impact, characterized by rising absolute emissions and a generation gap in renewable energy
Emissions Intensity:
India reduced its emissions intensity by approximately 36% by 2020 (from a 2005 baseline), meeting its original 33-35% target well ahead of the 2030 deadline
This reduction was driven by
The rapid expansion of non-fossil power capacity
A structural economic shift toward lower-carbon services
National efficiency programs like PAT (Perform, Achieve and Trade) and UJALA
Despite intensity gains, the economy exhibits "partial decoupling," where GDP growth outpaces emissions growth, but absolute emissions continue to rise rather than fall.
For Example, Absolute greenhouse gas emissions remain high (around 2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020) and continue to rise and Carbon-intensive sectors such as steel, cement and transport show persistent emission growth.
The Generation Gap in Energy:
While non-fossil fuel capacity reached approximately 51.4% by June 2025, it contributed only about 22% of actual electricity generation in 2024-25
Coal remains the backbone of India’s energy matrix, accounting for over 70% of electricity production.
This is due to its role in providing constant baseload power, unlike intermittent renewables.
A critical bottleneck is energy storage.
While the Central Electricity Authority forecasts a demand of 336 GWh by 2029-30, only 500 MWh of battery capacity was operational as of September 2025.
Carbon Sequestration and Forest Cover:
India has sequestered an additional 2.29 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent over 2005 levels, nearing its 2.5-3 billion tonne targets
Critics argue these figures rely on definition elasticity where the Forest Survey of India includes plantations (like eucalyptus, mango, and tea gardens) as forest cover, confusing administrative designation with ecological restoration.